When people picture the electrification of freight, they often think first about the trucks themselves. But according to
Colin McKerracher, Head of Clean Transport at
BloombergNEF, the real story is in the data – and it's more encouraging than the current mood of geopolitical uncertainty might suggest.
In this episode of Smart Freight Conversations: The Catalyst Series, Andy Golding, Director of Strategic Services at Smart Freight Centre, sat down with Colin to unpack what 20 years of tracking the energy transition reveal about where road freight electrification stands today — and where it's headed.
The Technology Has Caught Up
Colin's headline message: he has never been more optimistic about the pace of change, despite policy rollbacks and geopolitical turbulence. That optimism is rooted in hard numbers. Two- and three-wheelers and buses already sell electric about 40% of the time globally. Passenger cars aren't far behind, with one in four new cars sold last year including a plug. Trucks and vans lag — around 10% of light-duty van sales and 5% of medium- and heavy-duty truck sales are electric — but that gap is closing fast, and it's where the most transformative work remains.
Batteries Have Won the Technology Debate
A few years ago, the industry debated whether hydrogen or electrification would dominate freight decarbonization. That debate is largely settled. Nearly all zero-emission truck deployments today run on batteries, with hydrogen playing a small, niche role in applications where electrification is genuinely difficult. Colin doesn't expect that to change meaningfully before 2035.
Start With the Easy Wins
China offers a preview of what's possible: medium- and heavy-duty electric truck sales are approaching 25%, driven by closed, predictable environments like ports, mines, and logistics hubs where infrastructure and routes can be controlled. Colin expects similar acceleration in Europe and North America as these "easy" segments prove out and the technology matures into harder use cases.
Investment Tells the Real Story
Electrified transport is now the single largest category of global energy transition investment — ahead of wind and solar. Within that, commercial transport is the fastest-growing segment. As Colin puts it, this isn't a future story; it's happening now.
Progress Isn't Automatic, It's Built
Perhaps the most important reminder from the conversation: growth curves aren't inevitable. Zoom into any smooth trendline and you'll find a series of decisions made by individual companies and people pushing the transition forward. The dual energy crises Europe has faced since 2022 may prove to be a similar catalyst to the 1970s oil shocks, which reshaped energy efficiency and generation for decades. Whether today's crises produce the same lasting shift will take years to know — but the technology, unlike in the 1970s, is finally ready.
Listen to the full episode to hear Colin's complete breakdown of where electric trucking stands and where it's headed next. Explore courses below to learn more.
